Excerpts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study of the Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Markets (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/88xx/doc8893/Chapter1.5.1.shtml)
CBO has found the following specific effects in its analysis:
Freeway motorists have adjusted to higher prices by making fewer trips and by driving more slowly. CBO analyzed data collected at a dozen metropolitan highway locations in California, along with data on gasoline prices in California, to identify changes in driving patterns. On weekdays in the study period, for every 50 cent increase in the price of gasoline, the number of freeway trips declined by about 0.7 percent in areas where rail transit is a nearby substitute for driving; transit ridership on the corresponding rail systems increased by a commensurate amount. Median speeds on uncongested freeways declined by about three-quarters of a mile per hour for every 50 cents the price of gasoline has increased since 2003.
After increasing steadily for more than 20 years, the market share of light trucks (including sport–utility vehicles and minivans), relative to all new passenger vehicles, began to decline in 2004. As a result, the average fuel economy of new vehicles has increased by more than half a mile per gallon since 2004 (because light trucks tend to be less fuel efficient than cars).
Used-vehicle prices have shifted, reflecting changing demand, particularly with respect to fuel economy: The average prices for larger, less-fuel-efficient models have declined over the past five years as average prices for the most-fuel-efficient automobiles have risen.
Another way that motorists can reduce their fuel costs is to drive more slowly. The incentive to slow down will depend on how much gasoline prices have increased, how much fuel would be saved by slowing down, and how much motorists value their time while driving.The value of the potential fuel savings from slowing down is rather small compared with reasonable measures of many motorists’ value of time, so the likely effect of gasoline prices on highway speeds also should be rather small. For any given reduction in speed, however, the fuel savings are greater at faster speeds and for less-fuel-efficient vehicles.
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